A little future gazing in 2010
Winston Churchill said a politicians job is predicting the future, then explaining why it didn’t happen like that after all.
I am not going to make any wild predictions, but I am going to note how I feel at the start (or near the start) of the year and if I am here at the end of the year I will compare some notes.
I think this year is going to be hard for the economy. Caution will still reign, but I saw signs of easing in November and December and that is hopeful. Anecdotal evidence and that from surveys also seem to back-up that impression). (See my entry about the Bellweather Report about the PR industry Business Desk NW echoes these sentiments).
What is not is the public sector’s up coming tidal wave of misery.
Whoever gets in power in May will be making cuts, probably of historic proportions to re-balance the books. The harbour of recessionary times will not protect in this storm. In fact agencies in any marketing discipline that are focused on the public sector will have worrying times. I can see Q3 being disappointing. It is a pity that the election was not in 2009 and this pain had been addressed earlier.
Some sectors, and I am thinking digital and technology will prosper. I only hear good things from the digital sector, if we overlook the demise of Flame Digital and Latitude.
I will be looking at environmental and technology as sectors I want to concentrate on this year. I have a good technology record, with plenty of experience.
2008 and 2009 will be remembered by many in PR as times of change: traditional PR being eroded by social media and digital. Unfortunately for traditional media there was change in a recession that acted as a catalyst for the transition to new media. Change is painful, uncomfortable, and the combination did not help.
I don’t think traditional media is doomed – it is a re-ordering of the way we communicate. Trade press is still resilient as is broadcast. It all makes PR more challenging and interesting. PRs must now be able to address traditional channels where they feel comfortable with new channels where they often did not, might still not. The level of knowledge might surprise: some PR professionals have bluffed it quite a bit while they have tried to catch up; others are well-informed. It makes it confusing for clients.
One interesting development might be that there will be more community based websites and forums: Facebooks for architects, LinedkIns for teachers. I promoted an Oracle professionals’ site for a new media agency that had used Drupal, an open sourced software, that will allow it to extend this concept to many other industries.
News and trade might communicate in a similar way. Trade and business press is already generating revenue and connecting with events, seminars, awards. But it is the nature of how it communicates: not pushing through information, more about engagement, building relationships to ensure that trust in the source is maintained and enhanced. How-Do, a North West based creative media portal is one example, as is Salford Online and its aims.
I will be reading about social media and commenting on things of interest on this site throughout the year.
Anyway this is my general take – not earth shattering, just a few observations.