Winston Churchill said a politicians job is predicting the future, then explaining why it didn’t happen like that after all.

I am not going to make any wild predictions, but I am going to note how I feel at the start (or near the start) of the year and if I am here at the end of the year I will compare some notes.

I think this year is going to be hard for the economy.  Caution will still reign, but I saw signs of easing in November and December and that is hopeful.  Anecdotal evidence and that from surveys also seem to back-up that impression). (See my entry about the Bellweather Report about the PR industry Business Desk NW echoes these sentiments).

What is not is the public sector’s up coming tidal wave of misery.

Whoever gets in power in May will be making cuts, probably of historic proportions to re-balance the books.  The harbour of recessionary times will not protect in this storm.  In fact agencies in any marketing discipline that are focused on the public sector will have worrying times.  I can see Q3 being disappointing.  It is a pity that the election was not in 2009 and this pain had been addressed earlier.

Some sectors, and I am thinking digital and technology will prosper.  I only hear good things from the digital sector, if we overlook the demise of Flame Digital and Latitude.

I will be looking at environmental and technology as sectors I want to concentrate on this year.  I have a good technology record, with plenty of experience.

2008 and 2009 will be remembered by many in PR as times of change: traditional PR being eroded by social media and digital.  Unfortunately for traditional media there was change in a recession that acted as a catalyst for the transition to new media.  Change is painful, uncomfortable, and the combination did not help.

I don’t think traditional media is doomed – it is a re-ordering of the way we communicate.  Trade press is still resilient as is broadcast.  It all makes PR more challenging and interesting.  PRs must now be able to address traditional channels where they feel comfortable with new channels where they often did not, might still not.  The level of knowledge might surprise: some PR professionals have bluffed it quite a bit while they have tried to catch up; others are well-informed.  It makes it confusing for clients.

One interesting development might be that there will be more community based websites and forums: Facebooks for architects, LinedkIns for teachers. I promoted an Oracle professionals’ site for a new media agency that had used Drupal, an open sourced software, that will allow it to extend this concept to many other industries.

News and trade might communicate in a similar way.  Trade and business press is already generating revenue and connecting with events, seminars, awards.  But it is the nature of how it communicates: not pushing through information, more about engagement, building relationships to ensure that trust in the source is maintained and enhanced.  How-Do, a North West based creative media portal is one example, as is Salford Online and its aims.

I will be reading about social media and commenting on things of interest on this site throughout the year.

Anyway this is my general take – not earth shattering, just a few observations.

PR spend for 2010 looks hopeful, albeit weak according to the Bellweather Report.

As mentioned in my annual review post, it seemed that business was picking up in Q4 and this seems to be confirmed by the report.

Spend is still in decline, but at a rate of 4% for Q4 compared to 24.4% for Q3.  It might be that Q1 is the bottom and that PR money will be released.

Recruitment is positive with nearly 40% seeing new staff appointments in 2010 and client budget is also on the up for over a third of those surveyed.  However, respondent numbers are small although trends seem to reflect a lot of conversations I have.

There is still the shock of a public sector cut back as early as summer, so while the overall trend looks reassuring there might be some hard times for agencies with a public sector client base.

Will there be more shocks for the economy, even though the US and China picture is encouraging?

Mick Greer has an impeccable record in advertising.

He has worked for Saatchi & Saatchi of course, Lowe, BBDO and McCann Erikson in the UK and abroad.  Mick ran his own agency in Sydney.  His campaign experience includes Vodaphone, Coca Cola, BP and Cathay Pacific.  And he is even going to work on a project with me in the new year – an undoubted highlight.

So down to business:

What can PRs learn from advertising professionals?

Too many PR stories, I believe, don’t have the compelling hook.

You only have a second to engage your audience.  Sure PR has its moments of brilliance, but we are talking about using a small moment time to hook your readers.  Are PRs measuring up?  I am not sure they appreciate that the window of opportunity to engage with their audience is so, so small.

Do you remember The Sun’s “Up yours Delores” and “Stick it up your Junta” headlines?

Alright, you might not be a Sun reader, but at least it understands its audience and writes accordingly and reels them in.  If you don’t believe me why has it got over  four million readers?

So what makes a campaign a success?

Well, you cannot tell if a campaign is going to be a success.

The Cadbury’s gorilla campaign was amazing.  The creatives and more so the client were brave to put that forward and make it work.  It had a touch of genius.

But ask me why and I cannot tell you.

It comes down to: Is advertising an art or science?  It is the perennial debate.   I have found intuition can be a powerful way of guiding your efforts and should not be discounted.  I do my research thoroughly just to let you know and build my creative work from there.

What I can say is understand the issues, think about the problem and then work harder at the solution.

Social media will badly affect traditional advertising, an accepted wisdom, right?

No, I don’t think so.

Traditional media will not go.  Internet devotees are still pushing the myths that the Internet is the only game worth noting and that you hold it in awe at all times.

You know that more people listen to radio than MP3 players or that more people (in the US) are watching TV than they did 5 years ago?  Traditional advertising spaces on well patronised spaces are still there in abundance.

It all means the Internet, although attractive for advertising revenue, is still one of a number of options.

The point I want to make though it that with the Internet as well as traditional channels, it is how you engage that is important.  What is the point of someone getting to your site and not being engaged?

It used to be get a site up, anything.  Then it was get them there.  Now it has to be let’s make our online communications so compelling they come back again and again and build a relationship with the brand.

Could you imagine a lawyer or accountant using Facebook to engage with their publics?  No, unless they are catering to a rather young set, this would be the received wisdom.

Personally I have not historically been a fan of Facebook.  It is a bit, well, it’s for kids isn’t it and other people with hands on their time?  I never really took to the platform and I never bothered.

Of course for B2C products and services it is rather more promising.  Unfortunately my work is nearly all B2B – PR for men and not boys – actually happy to receive inquiries from B2C businesses.

So does Facebook have a role for those that do not run B2C campaigns?

I think it can.  I have been using it more recently and although I prefer Twitter and LinkedIn to help my clients craft their communications, Facebook can have a role, for me at least.

Your clients are your sales team, if you do your work well.

But your friends can also take up that role, if only occasionally.  With a Twitter app pulling through content it is possible to give your friends more of an idea about what you do.  They might have a vague idea, but if they become more familiar with your enterprise, well.

The other thing is that Facebook builds up relationships, which is what social media is all about.

Some friends on Facebook will not know you as well as an old school friend, so there is the opportunity to talk and get to know each other.  Sometimes small talk and fun is the best way for friendship, for work.

Now I know what you are thinking: it is all a bit mercenary.

I wrote a little time ago that the boundaries between work and the personal life are disintegrating.  I am not happy about it.  Yet where does your personal life stop and your business life begin?  Mmmmm

So where before I refused requests from business contacts into my Facebook arena, now I am minded to accept.

There is the ever present danger of not looking professional or exhibiting an opinion that is not for professional consumption although my Facebook pages are not really controversial.

The thing about social media is that it is like water: you can contain it for some time, but if it wants to break a barrier, social media will and can.

Don’t get me wrong I will continue to use Facebook for friends and it is not a business tool primarily.  I will just occasionally mention my work – I have anyway given in to trying to stop the tide.

Postscript

Toprankblog has a good little entry on using Facebook more effectively for business – take a look.

Oh who can hold a fire in his hand

By thinking on the frosty Caucasus?

Or cloy the hungry edge of appetite

By bare imagination of the feast?

Or wallow naked in December snow

By thinking on fantastic summer’s heat?

Oh no, the apprehension of the good

Gives but the greater feeling to the worse.

Bolingbroke Richard II

I have heard so many things in the media about green shoots.

A year ago it was financial meltdoom and economic gloom.  I am sure I read a variation on that theme for four months in The Times.  Did the media get bored and decide to talk up a recovery?

There are  always the estate agenices and other vested interests talking up the housing market, so is it all propaganda?

Well my experience of the last couple of months has been positive.

Over summer many decision makers and their companies were still taking cover, hatches firmly shut.

But now the sentiment does appear to have changed.

I have been talking to 1-2 businesses a week that are looking at PR.  I have the feeling that many businesses realise that they have survived, but they now have to compete for work.  And how do you do that?

These meetings are serious and purposeful in intent.

I have asked others who have confirmed this change is not my imagination or a quirky piece of fortune.

I cannot say this enthusiasm and openess to look at using communications is here to stay, the economy is not robust.  We can talk up a recovery and try to generate confidence, but it will fall down if the reality cannot catch up.  However, there is perhaps a realisation by business that to stand still now is not really an option.

Graham has been the marketing director for Matchbox Toys (which probably influenced my kindergarten career), and managing director of Dunlop Footwear and Remploy Textiles.

Today Graham uses his vast marketing and management experience to stimulate substantial growth in promising enterprises; his knowledge is also utilised to give business owners exit strategies – selling their businesses with good effect financially.

I started off by asking Graham about the building blocks that get you value, which are essential to growing businesses (especially in relation to marketing).

“Strategic marketing is all important.  But it’s not about creating a brochure or marketing material.  That’s tactical and not really where the battle to grow is won or lost.

The key is segmentation and positioning.

Let me talk about segmentation first.  The market is not homogeneous and to ensure resources and competencies are well targeted it needs to be broken down.

This all seems straightforward, but so many businesses just don’t understand buying behaviour or the routes to market.  It takes time, energy, objectiveness, willingness to embrace change and this is often underpinned by market research.

Yet, all too many businesses are too busy fire fighting or working in cruise control to address these issues.  In a recession you are even more likely to get found wanting, let alone not make the most of your product or service.

Positioning follows on: analysing and choosing the segments you can compete on in relation to quality offered, competition and margin.  Still too many businesses try to be everything to all and end up being of little note to anyone.”

And how does PR fit in to segmentation, positioning and the recession?

“PR can be a very targeted tool that can build up the appropriate reputation in the segment you want to be in.  Social media tools are also fine tools to support any PR campaign.  So PR is not an add on or nice to have, but central to engaging a strategic marketing plan.

Moreover PR can enable a smaller business to compete with bigger players or dominate a niche.”

Are there any sectors where PR agencies should target?

“Any industry that offers longer-term employment prospects is worth developing knowledge and contacts.

I think advanced technology and in particular bio-medical, chemical and environmental will be of crucial importance to the economy, especially in the North West.

I would also say hotel, leisure and tourism although that might surprise some in the current climate.”

Graham can be contacted through his website www.exceptionalbusinessresults.com and is also a coach for the North West’s High Growth Programme

Friday 9th October is the final day to register interest for the Creative Credits grant.

It is a 10 minute process, so as long as you are VAT registered, have a company number and are based in Greater Manchester (including Congleton and Macclesfield)  and want PR or marketing or creative services then it is worth investing this small amount of time.

Selected businesses will be informed within a couple of weeks.

For more information and links to register with Creative Credits click here or simply look below.

Are you a business based in Manchester, an SME perhaps?

Are you considering PR, would it help your business?

Well if you want to raise your profile in the business community, with potential clients, then this might be of more than some interest.

NESTA, a body that promotes innovation in business, is providing £4,000 towards the costs of marketing and PR projects.

Recipients will invest £1,000, but as this is matched by a £4,000 grant it will mean that 80% of the cost of a project or campaign will be covered.

The scheme called Creative Credits is a pilot project and is being launched in Greater Manchester, with a possible view to rolling it out to other cities.

So if your company is based in Greater Manchester then why not register, it takes about 10 minutes to do so.  (You will need a company number and be VAT registered).

Click here to register for Creative Credits.

There are 75 grants available, which will be selected in October.  If your business is chosen – it is a lottery process – then you can select a supplier from the online gallery on the Creative Credits Internet site to provide the service you need, be it photography, design or PR.

Artisan will be providing PR and copy writing.  Integrated campaigns providing marketing and social media elements can be provided in conjunction with PR.

Please feel free to contact me, Rob, if you need further information.

In November I saw  Max Clifford speak.

When the audience was called to ask questions it invariably was: “How do I promote my charity or good cause?”  The answer invariably was, from Max: “Use a celebrity.”

Well this is all well and good for charities, but try using a celebrity to promote your push to handle capital gains tax for an accountancy company or use SEO for an e-commerce agency – you cannot use celebrity for everything, indeed most things.  And even if we could get Mylene to promote CGT it would cost.  Perhaps we would use Boris Johnson or Sacha Baron Cohen anyway – lend a bit of intellectual clout and humour hey?

Last week though I was helping promote Reds In Business: business networking for football fans.

Duncan Drasdo who heads the Manchester United Supporters Trust came up with a simple but potentially attractive concept.  The media loved it!

A few years ago I was doing the PR for Mark Greenwood who runs Networking4Business, business people along the M62 might recognise the Simply Networking brand.

I had a lot of success: NW Business Insider, Entrepreneur NW, Liverpool Daily Post, South Manchester Reporter, The Metro (national) and so on.  But as a subject, after a wave of journalistic enthusiasm, it lost its interest among the media community.  There were further opportunities that resulted in good coverage, but you had to work much harder.

So my point, eventually, is an association with Manchester United (Duncan runs the Manchester United Supporters Trust) and football has resulted in a great deal of media interest and coverage.  Celebrity (in this case a football club rather than a person) really sells in the media.

A couple of small plugs:

Mark Greenwood is very active with his networking meetings, still going strong after five years.

Wigan FC has a networking event when it meets City on the 18th October. Shaun Petafi of Wigan can give more details 01942 770448 or click through.

In addition to the above I go networking at Manchester Business Breakfast Club.  We do not play football or watch as a group, but we are looking for members, football fans or not.

I was just seeing what would come up for some keywords on Google and tried Manchester PR.

I was looking over the statistics this morning and there is no doubt the term is a much coveted, but how much would you pay for it?

The Manchester PR domain is up for the taking to the highest bidder (until the 17th August) with a reserve of £5,000.

Is that reasonable value, a bargain perhaps?  Strange how it has come to the market after all this time.