Today it has been officially announced that we are out of recession!!

Well if you are looking to start a career this news will make scant impression on you.

The 1990 recession ended when you had a “proper” job – I still think many people who graduated in the early 90s are still feeling the affects of their bad timing at being born some 20 years earlier.  Can do better next time if he applies himself.

The 90s recession ended in about 1997 if truth be told for many people.  Bill Clinton, new technology, the Internet easing communication and attracting investment, the start of de-regulation of US banks (which had been put in place by FDR in the 30s that helped create the worst recession since the 30s) all had a role to play.

The fact for many is that careers were missed, and why?, because in the case of the marketing industry there was a reluctance to develop people – give them a chance.  Of course some made it nevertheless, but the industry was unwelcoming and expected 21 years experience and candidates to be 20 years old.

I can only hope that the recovery does not exclude vast swathes of able people, but it will.

It is time for business to recognise that talent does not come from doing a marketing degree or experience only.  There is a lot to be said for determination, personal characteristics such as being sociable, open to learning.

For professionals that have lost their jobs who are on the other side of the age divide, there is no reason why some businesses should discriminate – it is the person, not the age that counts.

What am I saying: the world is unfair?

It is true.

What I am saying is:

Treat people with respect – there will be too many graduates wanting a career where there are too few openings and some HR departments will enjoy thinking they are of a higher power.  It is the personal characteristics that I think make a good marketer, but can you spot these and are they developed when you are a new graduate?

If you want a career in PR or marketing, the chances are you will succeed if you are determined and what might seem a bleak age now will dissolve away in time. Give yourself time and accept support when going through the often bleak process of finding a job.

I think I will tackle how to give yourself a real head start in an entry shortly – keep tuned

PR spend for 2010 looks hopeful, albeit weak according to the Bellweather Report.

As mentioned in my annual review post, it seemed that business was picking up in Q4 and this seems to be confirmed by the report.

Spend is still in decline, but at a rate of 4% for Q4 compared to 24.4% for Q3.  It might be that Q1 is the bottom and that PR money will be released.

Recruitment is positive with nearly 40% seeing new staff appointments in 2010 and client budget is also on the up for over a third of those surveyed.  However, respondent numbers are small although trends seem to reflect a lot of conversations I have.

There is still the shock of a public sector cut back as early as summer, so while the overall trend looks reassuring there might be some hard times for agencies with a public sector client base.

Will there be more shocks for the economy, even though the US and China picture is encouraging?

Oh who can hold a fire in his hand

By thinking on the frosty Caucasus?

Or cloy the hungry edge of appetite

By bare imagination of the feast?

Or wallow naked in December snow

By thinking on fantastic summer’s heat?

Oh no, the apprehension of the good

Gives but the greater feeling to the worse.

Bolingbroke Richard II

I have heard so many things in the media about green shoots.

A year ago it was financial meltdoom and economic gloom.  I am sure I read a variation on that theme for four months in The Times.  Did the media get bored and decide to talk up a recovery?

There are  always the estate agenices and other vested interests talking up the housing market, so is it all propaganda?

Well my experience of the last couple of months has been positive.

Over summer many decision makers and their companies were still taking cover, hatches firmly shut.

But now the sentiment does appear to have changed.

I have been talking to 1-2 businesses a week that are looking at PR.  I have the feeling that many businesses realise that they have survived, but they now have to compete for work.  And how do you do that?

These meetings are serious and purposeful in intent.

I have asked others who have confirmed this change is not my imagination or a quirky piece of fortune.

I cannot say this enthusiasm and openess to look at using communications is here to stay, the economy is not robust.  We can talk up a recovery and try to generate confidence, but it will fall down if the reality cannot catch up.  However, there is perhaps a realisation by business that to stand still now is not really an option.

MEN Media Ltd is cutting 150 jobs, including 40 out of 90 at the Manchester Evening News according to reports in Crain’s.

I am in shock, I very much mean it.  Not because advertising revenues are down although the last tax returns showed a healthy profit.

I have to say I thought after two major rounds of job cuts over the past two years there would be little give.  How can you maintain standards with such drastic cuts?

Where do you go from here if you find yourself looking for a new journalist’s position?

Has it reached its tipping point between seeing itself as a paper based medium with digital, and digital based medium giving out free newspapers to keep advertising revenues?

Comments welcome.

Matthew Guy, a graduate designer, is looking for a job.  It is competitive to get a foot into an advertising agency.  What do you do?

You could put your portfolio online.  Check.  You could put a bio up.  Check.

Or you could come up with something really creative.

Matthew has put cardboard cut outs of his site on advertising agency doors where he wants to walk through as an employee.

But I really like his Subservient Graduate website where you can go and command him to do your bidding (it is all pre-recorded).  Showing a sense of humour, originality, persuades you to spend the time to have a look at his work, which looks good.

Very impressive!

Postscript

I have seen a few comments on the Scamp blog that say that these ideas are not new.  Who cares?  Little under the sun is.  I generally still credit anyone who can use ideas and remould them to their aim effectively.

Still have a look at Subservient Chicken from Burger King, which is live.

Ed Balls, former economic advisor to Gordon Brown and current secretary of state for children, schools and families, came out with a frankly staggering statement reported today by the BBC.

Addressing a Labour audience he said the financial crisis will be “more extreme and more serious than that of the 1930s.”

Balls didn’t mince words,  “The reality is that this is becoming the most serious global recession for, I’m sure, over 100 years as it will turn out.”

What was he thinking?

Where communications is all important in politics how could he be so irresponsible?  It is not really the most reassuring messaging.  Well it is not messaging, it is just blunt.  Downing Street attempted to play down the comments.

Speaking after Gordon Brown used the word “depression” during prime minister’s questions (later explained away as a slip of the tongue) you would think all government ministers would be watching their words carefully.  The Labour communications team would be ensuring a clear, honest but confidence building message, well as much as is possible.

Now we have a situation where there has been a big balls up, which will make brown the colour of the week.

A caught 10 minutes of quite a preposterous episode today: The Treasury Select Committee grilling five well-known journalists about their coverage of the credit crunch and especially Northern Rock.

The caption underneath kept coming up with “should coverage of the credit crunch be restricted?”  Ridiculous!

The five business journalists included Robert Peston, Jeff Randall and Alex Brummer.  As you might guess Robert Peston was the centre of attention.

The MPs questioning centred on responsibility.  Shouldn’t Peston and his colleagues hold off with stories to give Northern Rock a chance?  Hadn’t they created the run on the building society?  Did they have inside information and mysterious sources?

The rebuttal was that Northern Rock was a badly run business.  It had failed because its wholesale division had stalled and big investors saw the writing on the wall and took their money out.  Holding off on a story for 48 hours would not have saved it.

The run was in many ways Northern Rock’s fault.  Their website had gone down because the bandwidth capacity could not cope with visitors and this created panic.

The queues had built up because they have too few branches for their client base and too few staff were put on duty.

And if a financial institution is badly run, whose fault is it when savers want to take their money elsewhere?  And more so when it is on the brink of collapse?

As for the insinuation that the journalists had shady sources, well that proved to show the MPs as lacking an understanding of their subject.

Peston maintained he had many sources and had used many different sources over the years, including some of the MPs questioning him.  He cross checked everything and did not have narrow weak biased source to base his stories on – unlike Bush’s evidence of going to war with Iraq.

If this was a trial then the case would have been thrown out on the first day.  It was embarrassing for the MPs and they did not know hope ridiculous they sounded.

This view that the media somehow created a recession is seeking a convenient scape goat.

And as for recklessly putting economic institutions in danger by their reporting, it came out that there is a suspicion the the Government used the media to suppress share prices before buying them by leaking the appropriate stories.  I wonder if that will go before a select committee.

Business Desk has recognised there is only so much doom and business reporting gloom you can take.  To be fair a number of NW business publications are looking for positive stories, realising that there are many businesses that are still thriving.  Indeed, I work with two that do especially well in these economic times.

Chris Barry says in his article today on Business Desk there are “plenty of business people striving to grow their firms despite the downturn and we will look to highlight their stories.” A much welcomed approach.  Newspapers are there to report and have no obligation to be positive, but there has been a lack of balance across much of the press recently.

In November I placed a story in the Salford Advertiser (below) in response to insolvency practice Begbies Traynor’s apocalyptic assessment of Salford businesses looking into the abyss.

On the nationals’ side I am not so sure.  One contact that receives a lot of media requests at his work has told me that the calls they receive want redundancies, redundancies, redundancies.

It is like looking at an avalanche hurtling towards you and you cannot out run it.  In fact you have short legs and you have sprained your ankle.

I got back from holiday with a bug and no appetite, either food wise or media wise, considering the deluge of bad news.

Now, the media cannot be blamed for poor lending practices, over borrowing, naivety that a boom is never going to end, greed or any of the other causes that can be attributed to the recession.  But even the most optimistic might begin to feel they are mired at the edge of civilisation.  Should we all go round the world for a year or live it up on the dole and see whether our new band will make it?

I wonder how long it will take before good news stories start to dig us out of this hole when the storm has passed.

In terms of PR downturns aren’t bad news (sorry about the pun) in terms of potential stories, it remains to be seen how it affects agencies.

Then again booms are good as well.  Some media outlets get pushed along in the flow, whichever way it is going and enjoy the ride.  Indeed a good news story seems unwelcome, it destroys the concensus that we are in real trouble.  When times are good who wants to hear the opposite view?

That is a little unfair.  The Salford Advertiser recently had a story for example from Begbies the insolvency business that told of the woe of local enterprises.  To their credit they ran a piece on three companies I work for in the areas that are doing really well when I said that the piece gave just one side of the story.

Anyway I found a really interesting piece from Jean-Paul Rodrigue on the workings of an economic cycle.

In it the media is noted as a part of the mania stage.  But it has a part to play all along.  I believe it is not an instigator for the most part – you cannot blame our economic problems on the media – but it is a driver at which ever stage i the cycle we are.

People ask if there are stories out there, some from businesses that do well in tough market conditions and I reply, “I am glad you asked, recession related news, views and advice are in boom time.”