It is like looking at an avalanche hurtling towards you and you cannot out run it.  In fact you have short legs and you have sprained your ankle.

I got back from holiday with a bug and no appetite, either food wise or media wise, considering the deluge of bad news.

Now, the media cannot be blamed for poor lending practices, over borrowing, naivety that a boom is never going to end, greed or any of the other causes that can be attributed to the recession.  But even the most optimistic might begin to feel they are mired at the edge of civilisation.  Should we all go round the world for a year or live it up on the dole and see whether our new band will make it?

I wonder how long it will take before good news stories start to dig us out of this hole when the storm has passed.

In terms of PR downturns aren’t bad news (sorry about the pun) in terms of potential stories, it remains to be seen how it affects agencies.

Then again booms are good as well.  Some media outlets get pushed along in the flow, whichever way it is going and enjoy the ride.  Indeed a good news story seems unwelcome, it destroys the concensus that we are in real trouble.  When times are good who wants to hear the opposite view?

That is a little unfair.  The Salford Advertiser recently had a story for example from Begbies the insolvency business that told of the woe of local enterprises.  To their credit they ran a piece on three companies I work for in the areas that are doing really well when I said that the piece gave just one side of the story.

Anyway I found a really interesting piece from Jean-Paul Rodrigue on the workings of an economic cycle.

In it the media is noted as a part of the mania stage.  But it has a part to play all along.  I believe it is not an instigator for the most part – you cannot blame our economic problems on the media – but it is a driver at which ever stage i the cycle we are.

People ask if there are stories out there, some from businesses that do well in tough market conditions and I reply, “I am glad you asked, recession related news, views and advice are in boom time.”

Tom Bloxham and the Urban Splash team have had a rough time recently.  Even though the enterprise is something of a beacon in the Manchester property sector it has had to make painful layoffs.

But Tom has approached one media channel (The MEN) in the right way at a time when he probably felt like ignoring it: he communicated and got his point of view across.

So many business do not.  By talking he was able to come over as honest and put over his direction to see Urban Splash come back from this set-back and current market conditions.

There will be businesses that react in the opposite way and lose out.  It reminds me of the effects of the dotcom crash:

I was working for an Internet agency that claimed the quite powerful local newspaper did not like them.

I suggested we speak to the business team.  The answer from management was that it was a bad idea: they didn’t like them.

The problem was that the agency had got lots of good editorial when things were going well in the late 90s.  As soon as the dotcom downturn happened they battened down the hatches and refused to speak to the media.

The first piece of coverage I achieved, a good quarter page, had a sting in the tail.  After talking about a big project it noted, with glee, that the agency had failed by a long shot to meet the ambitious aims it had announced in the late 90s.

I arranged to meet the deputy business editor to sort out any issues, got on very well and achieved a lot of coverage over the following 18 months.  (I actually keep in contact with him).

Working with the media is a two way process.  It is not a tap to switch on and off, whatever is happening with a business or the economy.  It is better if a business wants to suspend communications to explain why (off the record) and resume a PR campaign when it feels this is appropriate.  Having the courtesy and thoughtfulness to do this will win any business a lot of credit.

How-Do reported the sad news that The Metro is making redundancies.  This is especially sad for me because many journalists are based in Manchester and this is, I believe, the fourth biggest selling daily.

Journalism is a precarious business.  It is not often well-paid in relation to the pressures of the role.  And it is not always appreciated, I believe, by many PR professionals.

I came across this entry from the Editorialiste, a US based journalist blog, that has quotes frighteningly high numbers of journalists wanting to leave the profession, especially the younger ones.

What can we as PRs do about it?  Not much.  But we can appreciate that without them we would not be in work.

I have been wallowing in the misery that is PRs writing about the recession.  Well, actually it is how to come through it from Rainier PR and another from one of their agency staff, Stephen Waddington.

I wanted to leave comments and found I had to sign in.  I couldn’t be bothered.  I have migrated to a new ISP and in the process my stored passwords were wiped.  I could look them up, but I really can’t steal myself to do this on a Sunday morning.

Lazy? Yes.  But why do some blogs and websites still insist on signing in?  If it takes any longer than necessary to leave a comment or it does not have a track back, you are going to lose the interaction that makes any blog or website vital.

Manchester PR agencies have been recruiting and getting fat on impressive account wins for some time.  That’s alright.

It seemed that the MEN media section and other Manchester / North West / trade publications have had little trouble finding positive stories.  But now that we are all going to be Okies and live in Hoovervilles (if recent front page editorials from the nationals are anything to judge by), how will this affect the city’s PR outfits?

The  Drum magazine quoting Plimsoll, an industry analyst, paints a bad picture of the industry as a whole.  Findings for 1,000 UK agencies surveyed include:

• 30% of workforce could have to go
• 75% of agencies need to reduce headcount
• 116 agencies need to consolidate immediately or their survival is in question
• 20% of agencies are running at a loss

I spoke to an  PR supplier the industry on Friday and these figures are being reflected in bahaviour.  So much so that agencies are cutting back on £200 extras that would not have been questioned before.

There is a good side though.  There is hope.

Firstly, until something happens it is not 100% definite that it is going to happen.  It sounds like tautology I know.  The slow down could be brief, shallow; cheaper oil and lower interest rates could work.   I am not sure I believe this, but….

Secondly The Drum carried out a poll that found, after digital, PR was viewed as the marketing discipline most suited to survive in a recession.

Thirdly, as Bron Earnes of Hasilmann Taylor (not Manchester based, but I will accept her viewpoint)  says agencies working to 20% margins that closely revue spending and forecasts should survive.  A conclusion could be that the industry might be better placed after a down turn because good agencies, which are keen, will survive.  It could mean a better service to clients and a better perception of the industry.

Fourthly, as Charles Tattersall of Citypress says established players and smaller agencies with lower cost bases and fees could also do well.    Some agencies will do well and adapt.

It could be an opportunity for some.  Indeed while the PR supplier said that while some agencies were making redundancies, there was some that were just full on with their expansion.

The last thing I want is to see magazines going bust.

Over the last couple of years a number of NW business publications have fallen away.  They have been replaced by Crain’s and Good Company and How-Do, which have been life savers PR wise.

The lifestyle press is the North West has been doing well if the number of publications are something to base this statement on.  Buoyed by city centre living, a favourable economy and a property boom the numbers of magazines that I could pick up in Manchester about a year ago I estimated at 14.  There was one named after me I think called “Bob.”

In the last month The Magazine has been the centre of speculation as to its future and now YQ magazine has had to defend its position after cuts fueled speculation.

The lifestyle press has enjoyed the boom.  Any fall off in the property sector and its advertising and worsening of the credit crunch and you have to winder if more stories will unfortunately be appearing in How-Do with increasing frequency.

I am starting to hear this criticism being levelled at the media, as though any financial difficulties can be attributed solely to some irresponsible journalists.

If that is true, surely any upturn can be attributed to those same guys. So if your house has trebled in value you should be thanking your friendly local business journalist. Go on treat them to an expensive meal out at the very least.

It is true that confidence is everything. And of course the media has a strong influence here. But the fickle ebbing and flow of that precious feel good factor has more to it than the media wallowing in doom ridden scenarios, if we take away some ridiculous articles: one such piece in a national today claimed that the property market will not recover for 20 years. Who are you Mystic Meg or whatever she was called before the lottery. About as reliable.

The fact is the banks over lent, credit card companies over lent, mortgage companies over lent. We want our money back: Credit Crunch. I don’t have an economics degree I know but it didn’t help the lenders, so.

The media has power, it can influence, but somewhere, at least here, it is for the most part reporting the mistakes of others.

If you want to blame someone there are much more credible targets and some of them unfortunately include ourselves.

mad.co.uk ran a story on the current IPA Bellwether Report on the state of the UK marketing industry, the results give a mixed picture.

While direct marketing is suffering cuts across all sectors and PR is not fairing well, marketing spend is actually on the rise: reading between the lines things are slowing up but are still quite reasonably healthy.  This seems to be reflected on the ground from my observations as agencies continue to be busy.

How to interpret things?  Are we going over the edge into a recession, business is just being a little cautious or in the light of recent year’s healthy demand this news isn’t so bad?  I don’t know, but we will be all watching.  The fear is that we might talk ourselves into something worse than it needs to be – such are economies and that all important confidence.

It is pretty frightening stuff.  How many links could I get to such stories about impending economic doom today?

I have even seen the odds for a Great Depression like outcome, the worst economic climate since the war and an early 90s type recession.  Of course we might get through it  with passing alarm as in the late 90s with the Asian collapse.

WPP has remained upbeat: 17% increase in margins for PR in 2007.  Sir Martin Sorrell chief executive of the marketing monster that is WPP said in PR week: “I can’t recall a time when PR has been as strong.”

My humble outlook seems to echo that as far as I can see Martin.

Just posturing on his part?  I think he means it.

So if we have a slide in our economic fortunes what will happen PR wise?

It might be a mixture of losing and gaining business.  Some budgets withdrawn, other companies coming into play, using marketing and PR to maintain sales in hard times.

I feel as though things are in slow mo.  What can I do?  Keep outgoings low.  Check.  Have a mixture of accounts from many industries.  Check.  Do not rely on one big client.  Check.

I point my ship into the storm and use an anchor for balance.